Since our update on the impact of U.S. tariffs on mobile app marketing released on April 9, 2025, amidst the rumblings of a global recession, the U.S. administration has announced new trade investigations, introduced targeted tariff exclusions, and signalled potential shifts in its stance toward China. These developments have contributed to market volatility and compelled brands across industries to reassess their strategies and futures, while shaping a new ad spend outlook for the remainder of the year.
China’s response to the April 9 tariff pause came swiftly. On April 10, the country raised tariffs on all U.S. imports to 84%, up from 34%, triggering sharp market declines across Europe and reintroducing risk into global consumer sentiment. For app marketers, it highlighted how geopolitical volatility can introduce uncertainty into planning cycles when targeting price-sensitive regions or operating across borders.
Some relief arrived on April 12, when the U.S. introduced key tariff exclusions for smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors. The move eased pressure on device supply chains and created a short-term window of stability for mobile-first brands. Campaigns tied to device launches or original equipment manufacturer (OEM) partnerships gained breathing room.
By April 17, however, new risks emerged. The administration imposed an additional 20% tariff on Chinese electronics and launched Section 232 investigations into semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals. These probes raised the spectre of future restrictions and long-term cost surges. For app marketers in sectors tied to health, tech, or international logistics, this signalled a need to pressure-test regional strategies and CPM (cost per thousand impressions) projections.
April 21 marked one of the sharpest April market selloffs in nearly a century. The Dow dropped nearly 1,000 points and the dollar hit a three-year low. While President Trump tried to calm markets on April 23, hinting that the 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods might be “substantially reduced” if a deal was reached, uncertainty quickly returned. On April 25, he told Time Magazine he would consider it a “total victory” if tariffs between 20% and 50% stayed in place a year from now. Futures dipped, and volatility resurfaced, making brands increasingly cautious in shaping their ad spend outlook amid continued economic ambiguity.
In the week since, China has redirected export-restricted goods to its domestic market, triggering a steep price war and deepening deflation in the country. Platforms like JD.com, Tencent, and Douyin launched major promotions to offload inventory, with discounts of up to 55%. For app marketers targeting China or nearby regions, the fallout includes fiercer competition for attention and tighter margins. Meanwhile, Europe is seeing lower inflation thanks to a stronger euro and an influx of cheap Chinese imports, an ironic contrast to rising U.S. prices. For app marketers with global user bases, this growing economic divergence between markets introduces a new layer of complexity in campaign planning, price sensitivity modelling, and creative localization.
Strategic Supply Realignments by Apple and Samsung, Among Others
As device makers adjusted to the April tariff shocks, their strategic moves, though rooted in manufacturing logistics, carry significant implications for mobile marketers. After all, every app experience, install campaign, and monetized impression ultimately depends on the availability and affordability of smartphones and smart devices.
One of the most high-profile corporate responses has come from Apple. During the time of writing our previous update, Apple was already ramping up shipments of iPhones produced in India, with truckloads of inventory moving to meet U.S. demand ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. Apple had seen the signs in the tea leaves. Since then, the company announced that it would source all iPhones sold in the U.S. market from India by 2026, marking a major break from its historic reliance on Chinese manufacturing.
Apple’s shift builds on a 60% year-over-year increase in Indian iPhone output, driven by its suppliers Foxconn and Pegatron. With India offering competitive labour costs, supportive trade policies, and improving infrastructure, the company aims to ensure uninterrupted device availability for consumers, and, by extension, for advertisers that rely on those devices for engagement and monetization.
Apple’s pivot is emblematic of a wider trend among multinational corporations seeking to hedge against production-chain concentration risks.
- Samsung is now actively considering shifting part of its smartphone and electronics manufacturing from Vietnam to India. Talks have reportedly begun with Indian EMS (electronics manufacturing services) players, including Samsung’s existing partners. This move follows the Trump administration’s announcement of a steep 46% tariff on Vietnamese imports, prompting many tech giants to reassess operations. While Samsung exported over $52 billion worth of mobile phones and spare parts from Vietnam in FY24, it now sees India as a vital alternative in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
- HP Inc. is deepening its manufacturing presence in India, buoyed by India’s ₹17,000 crore (USD $2 billion) Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for IT hardware. HP doubled its production output in India last year and plans to expand local manufacturing even further, especially as India and the U.S. move closer to finalizing a bilateral trade agreement.
- Alphabet Inc. (Google’s parent company) has also begun discussions with contract manufacturers such as Dixon Technologies and Foxconn in India to shift part of its Pixel smartphone production from Vietnam to India.
These moves matter for marketers. While smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors were temporarily exempted from new tariffs in mid-April, supply chains remain fragile. The actions by Apple, Samsung, HP, and Alphabet are pre-emptive bets on market continuity, ensuring that as new devices roll out, advertisers can count on stable hardware penetration, consistent app performance, and reliable inventory across operating systems and geographies.
Impact on Ad Spend Outlook and Marketing Approaches
As tariff instability bleeds into boardrooms and budget spreadsheets, advertisers are bracing for a leaner, more volatile year.
A survey by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) conducted in February 2025 revealed that 94% of U.S. advertisers expressed concern over the impact of tariffs on ad spending. Notably, 60% anticipated budget cuts ranging from 6% to 10%, while nearly a quarter expected deeper reductions of up to 20%. This cautious outlook is already manifesting in spending behaviours; a survey by William Blair in early April 2025 indicated that nearly 70% of advertising executives had revised their digital ad plans in response to macroeconomic volatility, with an average pullback of 7% in spend during the first quarter.
The slowdown is expected to be sharper in sectors most directly affected by tariffs, such as retail, ecommerce, and consumer electronics. According to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), 40% of retail/ecommerce brands and 33% of consumer electronics advertisers anticipate budget reductions in the coming quarters.
In response to these pressures, advertisers are shifting focus towards performance-based channels that offer measurable returns and greater flexibility. A LinkedIn article from April 2025 notes that brands are reallocating budgets from traditional and social media channels to channels like search and connected TV (CTV), which are perceived as more resilient and cost-effective. Furthermore, digital marketing leader Optmyzer recommends shifting to platforms like Microsoft Ads, Pinterest, and Reddit, which offer lower cost per-thousand impressions (CPMs) compared to traditional platforms.
Moreover, programmatic advertising continues to gain traction as a flexible and efficient solution in this uncertain landscape. eMarketer forecasts that U.S. programmatic ad spending will approach $180 billion by 2025. The automation and real-time bidding capabilities inherent in programmatic platforms enable advertisers to optimize ad placements swiftly.
This belt-tightening will likely influence user acquisition budgets and increase the competition for valuable users, requiring mobile marketers to be more tactful with their spending.
Risk Mitigation Framework for Advertisers in Volatile Conditions
For advertisers navigating today’s turbulent times defined by tariff hikes, shifting supply chains, and cautious consumer demand, programmatic advertising offers both flexibility and precision. The following approaches offer a roadmap for minimizing risks while optimizing outcomes:
🔄 Dynamic Bid Adjustments with Real-Time Signals
Traditional static bidding approaches can expose advertisers to inefficiencies during fast-moving economic changes. Instead, dynamic bidding, driven by AI and real-time signals can allow brands to adjust campaign parameters instantly based on shifts in audience engagement, inventory availability, and CPM volatility.
For example, during periods of market stress when CPMs for premium inventory rise, dynamic bidding models from DSP-based (demand side platform-based) technology like RevX, can pivot to underpriced but high-performing inventory segments, preserving both reach and ROAS. For example, if tariffs on country-specific imports escalate further, driving up costs for imported consumer electronics, advertisers can use dynamic bidding to shift their focus to less affected inventory, ensuring continued reach without overspending.
The IAB’s “State of Data 2025” report emphasizes that brands should focus on building a strong AI foundation across the campaign lifecycle. Advertisers are urged to generate detailed audience personas and a comprehensive understanding of the customer journey by unifying first-party data from Customer Relationship Management (CRM), site analytics, and other platform data. This helps AI models predict audience value more accurately and optimize bids accordingly.
Real-time scenario planning is another critical step, enabling brands to predict and manage investments based on live performance across paid, earned, and owned media while accounting for ongoing market changes. Additionally, interpreting performance and behavioural data in real time allows advertisers to identify high-engagement segments and adjust bids dynamically toward inventory that yields the strongest returns. It’s less like steering a ship and more like piloting a drone as adjustments happen on the fly with precision.
Programmatic advertising can help brands shift from reactive budget management to proactive, precision-based optimization, strengthening the resilience of their campaigns during broader economic challenges.
📊 Ad Inventory Diversification to Manage Volatility
Relying on a narrow set of inventory sources can leave advertisers vulnerable when tariff shocks or supply-chain changes drive up CPMs. In a stormy market, a one-channel strategy is like sailing with a single sail: fine until the wind changes. A more resilient approach blends premium supply with high-growth channels, especially retail media networks, off-site retail media, and Connected TV (CTV).
Retail media, while originally focused on retail and ecommerce brands, is now expanding its reach through off-site placements, which enable all types of advertisers—including non-retail and app marketers—to tap into retailers’ rich first-party data and target audiences across the broader web and app ecosystem. Off-site retail media refers to ads purchased through a retailer’s media network but shown outside the retailer’s own properties, such as on news sites, apps, or CTV environments via programmatic channels.
According to eMarketer’s January 2025 forecast, U.S. advertisers will spend over $62 billion on retail media in 2025, a year-over-year increase of more than $10 billion. Off-site retail media inventory is expected to grow 42.1% this year, nearly three times the rate of on-site retail media. Meanwhile, CTV ad spending is forecast to rise 15.8% to $33.4 billion, with 58% of U.S. media agency professionals planning to increase their CTV budgets in 2025.
Allocating programmatic budgets across these diverse avenues, allows advertisers flexibility: when open-exchange CPMs spike, spend can be shifted into retail media’s closed-loop, data-rich ecosystems or CTV’s growing inventory.
📈 Incrementality Measurement to Maximize Returns
Standard engagement metrics like CTR and impressions offer a snapshot of user behaviour, but they don’t establish causality, something DSPs are uniquely equipped to measure. DSPs can guide brands through designing and executing incrementality tests, whether with:
- Holdout groups – withholding ads from a control audience
- Ghost bidding – simulating bids to capture counterfactual data
- Randomized controlled experiments – randomly assigning users to test and control groups.
Comparing outcomes between exposed and control segments enables brands to isolate the causal effect of their campaigns and identify which channels, creatives, and inventory sources move the needle.
Once the test data is in hand, DSPs help interpret lift metrics and refine bidding algorithms so that budgets are reallocated to the highest-performing tactics. This disciplined, scientific approach to measurement ensures media investments are continually optimized for KPIs, enhancing ROAS and minimizing ad spend waste.
Conclusion
As businesses brace for continued uncertainty driven by trade tensions, shifting tariffs, and production chain shake-ups, mobile app marketers face an unstable environment that demands constant reassessment of their ad spend outlook.
Programmatic advertising, with its inherent flexibility and precision, offers an invaluable advantage. With dynamic bid adjustments powered by machine learning, high diversification of inventory sources, and rigorous approach to incrementality testing, advertisers can navigate challenges while maintaining efficient spend.
The right data signals, flexible bidding strategies, and a clear view of incremental impact enable mobile advertisers to navigate unpredictability with confidence, and even find growth in the margins.
At RevX, we specialize in guiding brands through the complexities of programmatic advertising, optimizing campaigns to drive tangible results, and ensuring every dollar spent contributes to growth. Reach out to our team of RevXperts today, and let’s build resilient strategies that thrive in times of disruption.
Garima Batra
Content Marketing Manager
